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April 08, 2008
What's Behind Door Number Three, Carol?
Writing in the New York Times, John Tierney (free registration, or use BugMeNot) had given the best summary of the winning strategy of the Monty Hall Problem I've ever seen:
This answer goes against our intuition that, with two unopened doors left, the odds are 50-50 that the car is behind one of them. But when you stick with Door 1, you’ll win only if your original choice was correct, which happens only 1 in 3 times on average. If you switch, you’ll win whenever your original choice was wrong, which happens 2 out of 3 times.
The article goes on to explain how some psych experiments fell into the same trap most of us do when thinking about this problem Interesting reading, check it out.
Posted by Berry at April 8, 2008 11:39 AM
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